Hazard (0-1000)
We have used a variant of decision analysis and normal accident theory as the foundation of calculating the 'hazard value' on the cards. This Hazard is calculated as an average value of four quantities:
- Degree of tight coupling of the subsystems.
- Overall complexity of the technology.
- Degree of production pressures, negligence and ignorance.
- Existence and feasibility of less dangerous alternatives.
The higher the first three quantities are, the greater the catastrophic potential. The higher the last quantity is, the less cost efficient and socially acceptable the technology might be.
For example: assessing the Hazard value for the Challenger accident:
Degree of tight coupling of the subsystems = 1000;
Overall complexity of the technology = 1000;
Degree of production pressures, negligence and ignorance = 700;
Existence and feasibility of less dangerous alternatives = 400.
we determine the average, giving this accident a Hazard value of 775.
Another example: assessing the hazard value for the Entre-os-Rios bridge collapse:
Degree of tight coupling of the subsystems = 800;
Overall complexity of the technology = 200;
Degree of production pressures, negligence and ignorance = 700;
Existence and feasibility of less dangerous alternatives = 100,
and we get an average value of approxinately 450.
This way of assessing risk is a variation of normative decision analysis and normal accident theory and is as such mainly concerned with the minimisation of costs and body counts. It calculates probabilities on the grounds of expert evaluations and excludes other factors such as cultural values, ethical principles, and democratic dialogue.
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Nine Technologies
A. Air Transport
B. Buildings
C. Land Transport
D. Marine Transport
E. Bridges and Dams
F. Oil Tankers
G. Chemical Industry
H. Medical Industry
I. Nuclear Industry
Nine Theories
Quantitative Risk Assessment
Decision Analysis
Cost-benefit Analysis
Psychometrics
Normal Accident Theory
High Reliability Organisations
Risk communication
Arena Theory
Cultural Theory
Five Categories
Hazard (0-1000)
Casualties
Range (km2)
Fear Factor (0-10)
Media Effect (0-100)
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